Slight Rent Decline – What a 1.8% YoY Dip Means for Landlords
After years of rapid rent growth, Orlando’s rental market has finally edged down. The larger Orlando metro area saw roughly a 1.8% year-over-year decline in median asking rents by late 2025[1][2]. In practical terms, this modest dip signals a move from an overheated market toward stability. For rental property owners, a small decline means you may need to adjust pricing expectations: the days of automatic rent hikes are over (at least for now). Competitive pricing is key – charging what you did in 2022 or 2023 might now risk longer vacancies[3]. Orlando landlords who could easily raise rents last year are finding that pricing a home the same as in 2023 might now prolong vacancies[4]. In short, the market has shifted from red-hot to balanced, so savvy owners should focus on tenant retention and fair lease renewals instead of aggressive increases.
Keep Renewal Increases Modest: About 66% of Orlando renters renewed their leases in 2024 to avoid the tough competition and rent spikes elsewhere[5]. In 2026’s cooler market, many tenants will still prefer to stay put – if you keep any rent increases reasonable. A nominal bump (or even no increase) can encourage a good tenant to renew, saving you turnover costs in the long run.
Monitor Your Competitors: With more supply coming online, renters have options. Research comparable properties in your neighborhood and be prepared to slightly undercut peak pricing to fill vacancies. Higher rents don’t always mean higher profits if they lead to longer empty periods[6].
Offer Strategic Incentives: If a quality tenant is on the fence about renewing, consider sweetening the deal (e.g. minor upgrades or one free month) instead of risking a vacancy. In a balanced market, flexibility pays off more than a hardline on top-dollar rent.
Affordability Remains Tight Despite Falling Rents
It’s important to recognize that even with rents dipping, housing affordability is still a serious challenge in Central Florida. Orlando was recently ranked the 7th least affordable U.S. city for renters when comparing rents to incomes[7]. The median Orlando household income is about $69k, while median annual rent is roughly $19.8k (around $1,650 per month) – that’s nearly 29% of income spent on rent[7]. This is just shy of the 30% threshold for cost-burdened households, and it underscores why many renters still feel squeezed. In fact, average asking rents, though off their peak, remain over 11% higher than three years ago[8]. In other words, renters got walloped with huge increases in 2021–2022, and 2026’s slight relief hasn’t erased that burden.
How does this impact tenant behavior? Even a small rent drop isn’t a windfall for most renters, so many are stretched thin and price-sensitive. When rents get too high, tenants find coping strategies: moving in with family, getting roommates, or downsizing to apartments for affordability[6]. Orlando property owners should be mindful that renters may push back on rent hikes, pay late, or leave for a cheaper home if their housing costs consume too much of their income. The good news is that Orlando’s job market and population growth continue to drive solid rental demand (average occupancy is still around 94–95%[9][10]). But as an owner, maintaining that demand for your unit means aligning with what locals can afford. Setting a competitive rent that keeps your unit occupied is often smarter than testing the market’s ceiling and ending up with no takers[11].
Bottom line: affordability challenges will persist in 2026, so strive to be a fair landlord. By keeping rents in line with the market and offering good value (well-maintained properties, responsive management), you not only avoid turnover but also reduce the risk of delinquencies. Remember that an occupied unit at slightly less-than-peak rent still beats an empty one at a aspirational price.
Florida’s 2026 Minimum Wage Hike – Will It Help Tenants (and Landlords)?
One new factor in 2026 is Florida’s scheduled minimum wage increase. By September 30, 2026, the state’s minimum wage will rise to $15/hour (up from $14 in late 2025, and $13 the year before)[12][13]. In theory, this boost in the income floor should improve renters’ ability to pay. Realtor.com’s research suggests that markets like Florida will see the required work hours to afford a typical apartment drop a bit as wages climb[13]. For instance, in Miami and Tampa, the jump to $15 is expected to reduce the weekly hours a minimum-wage worker must work to cover the median rent by about 7–9 hours[13]. Orlando’s figures should be similar. This means a household with two minimum-wage earners might find it slightly easier to meet rent without overtime.
However, temper expectations – this wage hike is a small step, not a cure-all. Even at $15/hour, two full-time workers earn roughly $62,000 annually, which still falls below Orlando’s median income[7]. At the recommended 30%-of-income rent ratio, that household can afford about $1,550 in rent – well below the current Orlando median rent (~$1,800–$1,900)[14][15]. In other words, many low-wage renters will continue to face affordability issues, albeit with a bit more breathing room than before. As a property owner, you might observe:
Slightly Better Payment Trends: Tenants earning close to minimum wage could have more income available, potentially reducing late payments or defaults. An extra dollar or two per hour can help cover utilities or other bills so rent gets paid on time.
Sustained Rental Demand: Higher wages also expand the renter pool marginally – service industry workers might find it easier to live independently instead of doubling up. This could support demand for studios and one-bedroom units, as more people can afford to strike out on their own.
Upward Pressure in Budget Rentals: In more affordable segments (entry-level apartments, older units), landlords might find a bit more latitude to raise rent if tenant incomes rise accordingly. Be cautious, though: any rent increase can still backfire if it outpaces what tenants gain from the wage bump. Gauge your tenants’ situations before banking on higher rent.
Overall, Florida’s march to a $15 minimum wage is a positive for both renters and landlords in the long run – it injects more spending power into the rental market. But in 2026, affordability will remain a tightrope walk. Property owners should use this development as one data point in leasing strategy, not a green light to raise rents universally. Keeping good tenants happy and stable is still priority number one.
Orlando in Context: Rent Trends Nationally and Across Florida
Orlando’s rent cooldown isn’t happening in isolation. In fact, 2025–2026 brought a nationwide breather in rental prices. By late 2025, the national median rent was down ~1% year-over-year[16] – the first annual decline in several years. This “renter’s market” momentum is evident across many Sun Belt cities that saw huge pandemic-era run-ups. Florida, in particular, is a case study in normalization after a frenzy:
National Trend: Rents peaked in 2022 and then plateaued or dipped in many markets as new apartments came online and migration cooled. As of November, the U.S. median rent was $1,693, about 1% lower than a year prior[16]. Realtor.com called it a “limited improvement in rental affordability” – relief, but not a drastic drop[17]. Orlando’s 1.8% decline is a bit steeper than the national average, reflecting how much new housing was added locally.
Tampa & Jacksonville: Orlando’s closest Florida peers experienced similar or even larger corrections. By mid-2024, Jacksonville led the nation with a 12% YoY rent drop – its biggest on record[18][19]. Tampa also saw rents fall about 6% year-over-year around that time[19]. These sharp declines followed a period when Tampa rents had spiked nearly 38% in 2022[20]. Essentially, what went up fast is now coming down to earth. Looking ahead, forecasts show Tampa’s rents down ~2.3% annually through 2025 as supply remains strong[21]. Orlando’s projected decline (around 2.4%) is right in line[22]. Jacksonville’s rental market, having cooled quickly, is stabilizing as well – it had one of the highest apartment construction rates per capita, which temporarily pushed vacancies up and rents down[23]. Owners in these Central/North Florida markets should anticipate a continued “normalizing” trend: modest rent fluctuations and more competition, rather than the runaway landlord market of two years ago.
South Florida (Miami): Miami is a slightly different story. It remains one of the nation’s priciest and most competitive rental markets even after a recent cooling. As of late 2025, Miami’s overall median rent was about $3,000 – making it the 6th most expensive U.S. metro for renters[24][25]. That’s a whopping ~57% higher than the national average cost of rent[26][25]. However, even Miami wasn’t immune to market forces: the median price for a one-bedroom in Miami fell 3.8% year-over-year (two-bedrooms down 3.6%)[27]. In effect, Miami went from red-hot to just hot. Renters there are renewing leases at an extremely high rate (over 72% renewal in 2025) due to scarce options[28]. For Orlando landlords, Miami’s example shows that strong demand markets can still see slight price declines. It also signals that Florida as a whole is in a cooling phase – even where rents are astronomically high, they’re not rising like before.
Key takeaway: Orlando’s rent trend in 2026 is part of a broader pattern of market normalization. We are not seeing a crash, but rather a leveling off. Florida’s big metros all enjoyed huge rent gains during 2020–2022 and are now giving a little back. The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford metro’s slight decline places it in the middle of the pack – more relief for renters than in some U.S. cities, but less than in places like Jacksonville that became extremely overbuilt[19]. For property owners, the regional context is reassuring: Central Florida’s economy and population growth remain strong, so rental demand isn’t vanishing. More than 70,000 new residents move to Florida each year, many to Orlando[10]. Our metro’s job growth leads the nation in some measures[29][30]. This means that while you may have to be flexible on price, you can be confident that well-positioned rental homes will still find tenants. The competition (other landlords) is the main factor requiring strategy shifts – not an absence of renters.
Renting vs. Buying in 2026: Considerations for Investors and Owners
Another piece of the puzzle for owners is understanding how the rental market stacks up against the homebuying market in 2026. This is not just academic – it directly impacts investor decisions (hold or sell a rental property?) and whether some of your tenants may be eyeing a home purchase of their own. Let’s break down the current rent vs. buy landscape in Orlando:
Costs to Rent vs Own: Orlando home prices surged in recent years, but have now flattened out. The median single-family home price is around $380,000[31], and interest rates, while off their peak, are still in the ~6% range[32]. That means a typical mortgage (with 20% down) plus insurance and taxes could easily run $2,500+ per month for a median home. By comparison, the median rent for a house in Orlando is roughly $2,100–$2,400 (for a three-bedroom)[33], and the overall median rent across all property types is about $1,900[14]. In pure monthly outlay, renting can still be cheaper than buying the equivalent home in 2026. For many households, the upfront costs of buying (down payment, closing fees) and added responsibilities (maintenance, insurance, property taxes) tilt the scale in favor of continuing to rent, at least in the short term. This dynamic keeps plenty of demand in the rental pool, which is good news for landlords. As one local analysis put it, if you’re paying ~$2,000 in rent, that’s $24k/year “with nothing to show for it,” but owning requires you to have the savings and stability to capitalize on building equity[34]. Not everyone can do that, especially with high home insurance premiums in Florida eating into budgets[35].
Investor Perspective – Hold or Sell? If you’re an investment property owner, you might be evaluating whether 2026 is a time to cash out or hold onto your rental. Consider the rent-vs-sell calculus: Orlando’s home values are holding steady (no big drop in prices forecast)[36], and rental demand remains solid with ~95% occupancy and steady in-migration[37][10]. The rental yields in Central Florida (rent as a percentage of home value) are still attractive – many homes fetch 5-6% of their value in annual rent, which is competitive with other investments. Additionally, as discussed, many would-be first-time buyers are delaying purchases due to high costs, meaning they’ll remain renters for longer. This suggests you’ll likely have no trouble finding tenants and can continue to earn income on your property. Unless you have a pressing need to sell or your property is underperforming, holding and renting likely remains a smart strategy for 2026. Every investor’s situation differs, of course, but the broader conditions (high rental demand, stable prices, and still-elevated rents by historical standards) favor retaining rental assets for now.
Will Tenants Start Buying Homes? A question landlords often ask is whether a cooling rental market and potential easing of interest rates will cause an exodus of renters into homeownership (which could leave you with vacancies). It’s true that mortgage rates dipping into the high-5% range could entice more renters to consider buying[32]. Some of your reliable long-term tenants might finally take the plunge if they’ve saved for a down payment. We saw very low buyer activity when rates spiked above 7%, but that could change if financing gets cheaper. However, don’t panic: any uptick in renter-to-buyer migration will likely be gradual. Orlando’s population growth means new renters are always entering the market, offsetting those who leave to buy. Plus, many renters simply prize the flexibility of leasing – they might be transient, unsure about their job tenure, or unwilling to take on the risks of ownership. Unless a renter is financially and personally ready to buy (and plans to stay put for 5+ years to make it worthwhile[32][38]), they’re likely to continue renting. As a landlord, you should plan for some turnover as the market improves for buyers, but with a robust marketing strategy and perhaps a few upgrades to keep your property competitive, you can fill vacancies from the steady stream of renters who still find leasing to be the better option.
In summary, renting still compares favorably to buying for a large portion of Orlando’s housing consumers. High home prices, decent-sized rent-to-price ratios, and the convenience of renting mean investor-landlords can count on a healthy tenant pool. Keep an eye on interest rate changes in 2026 – if rates fall significantly, you might lose a few tenants to home purchases (particularly in the higher rent brackets where those folks have higher incomes). But broadly, Central Florida remains a renter-heavy market due to its growing economy and relative affordability versus owning. If you’ve invested in an Orlando rental property, 2026 should continue to provide opportunities for stable rental income and property value growth, as long as you manage proactively.
Positioning Your Rental for Success in 2026 – Ackley Florida Property Management Can Help
Navigating this evolving landscape of softer rents, cautious tenants, and new economic factors can be challenging. As a rental property owner in the Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford metro, you’ll want to stay ahead of the trends – adjusting your pricing, marketing, and compliance approach to maximize returns. This is where a professional partner becomes invaluable. Ackley Florida Property Management is here to assist owners like you with expert guidance on 2026 pricing strategies, leasing tactics, and regulatory compliance in Central Florida’s rental market. We understand the local trends discussed above and can translate them into an actionable plan for your specific property. Whether it’s setting the optimal rent for a quick, quality lease-up, implementing tenant retention programs to keep good renters happy, or ensuring you adhere to Florida’s latest landlord-tenant laws, our team has you covered.
Ready to make the most of Orlando’s 2026 rental market? Reach out to Ackley Florida Property Management today. We’ll help you strategically price your rental, effectively market vacancies, screen for great tenants, handle lease renewals, and keep you fully compliant with all regulations as the market shifts. With our professional support, you can confidently ride the 2026 rent trends and turn challenges into opportunities for growth. Contact us now to get a personalized rental strategy and ensure your investment thrives in the year ahead. Here’s to a successful 2026 for you and your rental portfolio! [1][6]
[1] [3] [4] [5] [8] Central Florida Rental Market Update 2025
https://www.ackleyflorida.com/blog/central-florida-rental-market-update-2025
[2] Orlando Rents Are Going Down - Realtor.com
https://www.realtor.com/advice/hyperlocal/orlando-rents-are-going-down/
[6] [11] Orlando Rental Market: Neighborhood Trends That Affect Rental Demand
[7] [15] Orlando Ranks Among 10 Least Affordable Average Rent Prices in Nation - Florida Daily
https://floridadaily.com/orlando-ranks-among-10-least-affordable-rent-prices-in-nation/
[9] [10] [29] [30] [31] [37] Regional Review: Orlando redefining growth and opportunities in real estate - caa | Capital Analytics Associates
[12] Florida minimum wage will rise in 2026. Here's how high it'll go
[13] [16] [17] Local minimum wage increases may help with rent affordability in 2026 - Scotsman Guide
[14] Average Rent in Orlando, FL and Rent Price Trends
https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/orlando-fl
[18] [19] [20] [23] [35] Rent Prices Are Dropping Across Florida’s Most Populous Metros
https://www.redfin.com/news/rents-fall-in-florida-austin-june-2024/
[21] [22] Where Is Rent Dropping the Most in 2025? | Apartments.com
https://www.apartments.com/blog/where-is-rent-dropping-the-most
[24] [25] [26] [27] Miami rental apartment market cools off, but still ranks among nation’s priciest cities | WLRN
[28] Miami named the hottest US rental market
https://southfloridaagentmagazine.com/2025/12/12/miami-hottest-rental-market-2025/
[32] [33] [34] [36] [38] Is it Smarter for You to Rent or Buy in Orlando in 2026?
https://www.therealtymedics.com/blog/is-it-smarter-for-you-to-rent-or-buy-in-orlando-in-2026
